Browsing by Subject "open pit optimisation"

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Access status: Open Access ,
Metodyka analizy ryzyka opłacalności inwestycji górniczo-energetycznej w warunkach niepewności na przykładzie złoża Legnica Wschód
(Wydawnictwa AGH, 2011) Woźniak, Justyna Ewa; Jurdziak, Leszek
Development of domestic energy industry based on brown coal requires new investments. Growing prices of $CO_{2}$ emission allowances and closing moment of the necessity of their purchase on auctions cause, that electric energy production out of brown coal become more and more risky business. For 20 equally probable models of the Legnica-East lignite deposit obtained from conditional simulation (module ConSim in Datamine Studio 3) process of Lerchs-Grossmann pit optimisation was carried out (NPVScheduler) leading to 240 ultimate pits in 12 groups obtained for different lignite price levels. Data about amount of overburden and lignite inside these pits and lignite quality (quality indicator QI) were used in Monte Carlo simulation process (R/Risk and Crystal Ball) to assess the influence of parameters describing the planned mine and power station (treated as random variables with selected distributions) on non-discounted financial results of a mine, a power station and a vertically integrated energy producer for 12 scenarios describing future market conditions of their operations (2 electric energy prices, 6 levels of $CO_{2}$ emission allowances: 0-300 PLN/Mg $CO_{2}$). Obtained histograms allowed for calculation of probability of their profits maximisation for selected pits, probability of losses and determine influence of examined parameters and scenarios on profit levels and risk connected with its achievement. Analysis was carried out in the Institute of Mining Engineering at Wroclaw University of Technology in frame of realized PhD thesis.