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Access status: Open Access ,
The relationship between the inflation rate and the unemployment rate in Poland and their long-term associations with selected macroeconomic variables
(Wydawnictwa AGH, 2023) Koterwa, Jan; Kycia, Hubert; Czapkiewicz, Anna
The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between the inflation and unemployment rates in Poland and to analyze their long-term relationships with selected macroeconomic variables: the WIG20 index, consisting of the 20 largest Polish companies noted on Warsaw Stock Exchange, the USD/PLN exchange rate, the Brent crude oil index, and the interest rate on 10- year government bond yields. The main objective of the study is to determine the relationship between inflation and unemployment. In this study, a vector error correction model (VECM) was used to study long-run dependence. The impulse response function and forecast error variance decomposition were also used to examine the interactions between variables. There is one long-run relationship between the factors studied. Both the values of the VECM model parameters and the results of the impulse response function indicate that there is a negative relationship between inflation and unemployment in the short term. In the long term, there is a positive relationship, resulting in the stagflation phenomenon.
Access status: Open Access ,
Selected approaches for testing asset pricing models using Polish stock market data
(Wydawnictwa AGH, 2014) Czapkiewicz, Anna; Skalna, Iwona
The main objective of this paper is to discuss alternative methods for testing the Fama-French (FF) three-factor asset pricing model. The properties of the selected methods are compared through a simulation study. The main stress is put on the behaviour of the selected methods for small samples. The parameters used in the simulation study are obtained on the basis of real data coming from the Polish stock market (Warsaw Stock Exchange). Different sample characteristics such as homoscedasticity, conditional heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation as well as heteroscedasticity are tested.
Access status: Open Access ,
The errors-in-variable model in the optimal portfolio construction
(2007) Czapkiewicz, Anna; Machowska, Małgorzata
In the paper we consider a modification of Sharpe's method used in classical portfolio analysis for optimal portfolio building. The conventional theory assumes there is a linear relationship between asset's return and market portfolio return, while the influence of all the other factors is not included. We propose not to neglect them any more, but include them into a model. Since the factors in question are often hard to measure or even characterize, we treat them as a disturbances on random variables used by classical Sharpe's method. The key idea of the paper is the modification of the classical approach by application of the errors-in-variable model. We assume that both independent (market portfolio return) as well as dependent (given asset's return) variables are randomly distributed values related with each other by linear relationship and we build the model used for parameters' estimation. To verify the model, we performed an analysis based on archival data from Warsaw Stock Exchange. The results are also included.

Czapkiewicz, Anna

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