Development of flood-hazard-mapping model using random forest and frequency ratio in Sumedang Regency, West Java, Indonesia

Abstract

Flooding, often triggered by heavy rainfall, is a common natural disaster in Indonesia, and is the third most common type of disaster in Sumedang Regency. Hence, flood-susceptibility mapping is essential for flood management. The primary challenge in this lies in the complex, non-linear relationships between indices and risk levels. To address this, the application of random forest (RF) and frequency ratio (FR) methods has been explored. Ten flood-conditioning factors were determined from the references: the distance from a river, elevation, geology, geomorphology, lithology, land use/land cover, rainfall, slope, soil type, and topographic wetness index (TWI). The 35 flood locations from the flood-inventory map were selected, and the remaining 18 flood locations were used for justifying the outcomes. The flooded areas from the RF model were 28.39%, the rest (71.61%) were non-flooded areas. Also, the flooded areas from the FR method were 8.02%, and the non-flooded areas were 91.98%. The AUC for both methods was a similar value – 83.0%. This result is quite accurate and can be used by policymakers to prevent and manage future flooding in the Sumedang area. These results can also be used as materials for updating existing flood-susceptibility maps.